2017 Western & Southern Open Final Preview: Grigor Dimitrov vs Nick Kyrgios

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Two enter, only one shall leave as champion. It’s golden opportunity for Grigor Dimitrov and Nick Kyrgios today when they meet in the Western & Southern Open final. Both are contesting their first Masters-level final with Dimitrov winning their lone meeting before today in three sets at Indian Wells in 2015.

(7) Grigor Dimitrov vs Nick Kyrgios

Upsets and withdrawals have led to an unexpected final in Cincinnati on Sunday, but about as good as organizers could have hoped for given the field that was left. Dimitrov followed up a semifinal run in 2016 with a trip to the finals this year and he’s done it with solid serving and timely tennis. Both those things were on display on Saturday as Dimitrov topped John Isner 7-6 (4), 7-6 (10) in the semifinals. The 7th seed won 83 percent of his first serve points and saved both break chances against his serve. He popped ten aces and also posted a stout 63 percent win rate on second serve. Dimitrov did not break Isner, but if there’s probably not much better preparation for facing Kyrgios’ bullet serve than seeing Isner’s rockets yesterday.

As for Kyrgios, he followed up his upset of top seeded Rafael Nadal with a pesky 7-6 (3), 7-6 (4) win over a rejuvenated David Ferrer. Kyrgios was nearly flawless on his first serve, taking 43 of 48 points. He had a small struggle on second serve, taking just 62 percent of the points. He smashed 14 aces to offset four double faults. Kyrgios was not broken on three chances against his serve. Surprisingly, it was the first match since his opener against David Goffin where Kyrgios was not broken in Cincy this week.

Tournament Tally

For the week, Dimitrov has produced some of his best serving of the season. The big thing for him has been consistency and that has led him to being broken just one time on ten chances. His win rate on first serve is averaging right at 83 percent. It would be in the upper 80s if not for a pedestrian 73 percent win rate against Juan Martin Del Potro. Otherwise, Dimitrov has been consistently winning over 80 percent on his first serve. His second hasn’t looked much worse, winning no less than 63 percent of the points in any match. Dimitrov has also gotten his fair share of freebies with 36 aces.

Kyrgios has been broken three times on 15 chances, an average of just three break points against through five matches this week. Kyrgios has been nearly unstoppable with his first serve in rhythm this week. He’s winning right at 88 percent off his first serve this week. His second has been just as good, winning over 70 percent of the points in four of his five matches. NK’s last match against Ferrer was his worst with his second serve, taking just 52 percent of the points. Kyrgios has 57 aces for the week, an average of just over ten per match.

Match Tactics

Kyrgios wants to play at lightning speed. Serve big, get cheap points, rinse and repeat. Don’t be surprised to see Dimitrov try to slow the tempo some in an effort to upset Kyrgios’ rhythm and timing. If Kyrgios gets into that quick and aggressive rhythm on serve early and keeps it, he’ll be nearly impossible to break and less likely to lose. Dimitrov’s mentality won’t change much if any from his semifinal against Isner. He will know that a lot of balls are going to fly past him on serve. He has to move on and set up for the next ball. Kyrgios will want to continue to place the ball with speed and accuracy, so that when Dimitrov does get a return, the next ball is an easy put away for the Aussie with the Bulgarian in bad court position off the return.

Dimitrov won’t get as many free points as Kyrgios, but he can be just as effective on serve and will need to be. Placement is a key for the Bulgarian and you’d expect him to target the backhand return of NK more often. When he goes out wide to the forehand side, Dimitrov will need to put enough mustard on his serve to take Kyrgios into an off-balance position. That will in turn allow Dimitrov control of the court and the option to make Kyrgios run. Off the ground, Kyrgios obviously wants to nail that forehand as many times as often. His backhand is adequate, but a bit more of a set-up shot than a finisher. Dimitrov can finish can use his one hander off the backhand side equally to finish and set up shots.

If there are longer ground rallies, Dimitrov should feel better about his variety winning out. I think a key for Dimitrov as always is being aggressive and decisive off the ground. When he doesn’t overthink shots, he’s much more lethal and will cause more trouble for Kyrgios. Given Kyrgios’ pace of play, things could work to Dimitrov’s advantage in that regard. Look for Kyrgios to continue to hit big and go for winner as he’s done all week. Errors will come, but he’ll hope he again has more winners in his bag.

The Pig’s Bottom Line

Their match at Indian Wells in 2015 was an interesting one where Kyrgios twisted an ankle late in the third set. NK said it definitely effected him as he was broken for the only time after that happened. Dimitrov would pull out the win 7-6 (2), 4-6, 7-6 (4). That match could be plenty of what we see today with few break chances and one or two breaks of serve perhaps making the difference in the match. Dimitrov has two title wins this year, while Kyrgios is playing his first final since Tokyo last fall.

NK has proven to be very tough in finals at 3-1, while Dimitrov is 6-5 overall in ATP finals. While Dimitrov did have good practice for Kyrgios’ serve against Isner, I wonder if he can replicate the tense mindset of knowing that one break is deadly. Kyrgios has played his best stretch of tennis for the season and has been engaged and focused – at least as much as you can expect from him. This truly to me is about as much of a 50-50 match as you can find right now on tour. I’ll give the slight edge to Kyrgios in this one, where Dimitrov might not do much wrong, but still fall on the wrong side of the result.

Prediction: Kyrgios wins in straight sets

2017 Western & Southern Open QF Preview: Dominic Thiem vs David Ferrer

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A spot in the Western & Southern Open semifinals is the prize as Dominic Thiem and David Ferrer square off on Friday. For Ferrer, it is a shot at his first Masters semifinal since Paris in 2015. Thiem can get to his third of the year with a win.

(3) Dominic Thiem vs David Ferrer

Thiem has posted back-to-back wins for the first time since Wimbledon with his last coming via a 7-6 (4), 7-6 (3) win over Adrian Mannarino. The third seed was far from perfect as he battled back from down a break in set one and then battled through to the win after blowing a break lead in set two. His first serve win rate was 74 percent with his second serve win rate at 50 percent. He was broken three times on six chances. All his numbers were down from his buzz saw win over Fabio Fognini in his opener, where Thiem won 88 percent on his first serve and 75 percent off his second serve. He fended off both break points he saw in that match.

Ferrer has continued a recent run of good play post-Wimbledon. After winning the title in Bastad on clay, the Spaniard is now 5-1 combined at last week’s Rogers Cup and this week in Cincinnati. That includes wins over Kyle Edmund, Jack Sock, Steven Johnson and now, Pablo Carreno Busta. Ferrer was no match for his Spanish counterpart on Thursday in round three. Ferrer pressured PCB on serve enough to break him three times in the 6-4, 6-4 win. More impressive, Ferrer won 78 percent of his first serve points and an outstanding 70 percent of his second serve points. He was broken just once and that came in the first set. He saved three of four break chances against his serve. That was much better after Ferrer offered up 18 break chances through the first two rounds.

Second Career Meeting, First on Hard Courts

Friday’s qiarterfinal will mark only the second time that Thiem and Ferrer have faced off. It was Thiem who walloped Ferrer on clay in Rio last year 6-3, 6-2. Ferrer’s serve was a major detriment that day, with just a 58 percent win rate on his first serve and 42 percent off his second. Thiem’s serve was solid, winning 76 percent and 59 percent. He was broken just once on four chances, while Ferrer surrendered four breaks on nine chances.

Thiem was in superb form at the time, having won a title in Buenos Aires the week before on clay. He would make it one match further in Rio to the semifinals before losing and then follow that with a title in Acapulco the week after on hard courts. At the time, Thiem called the win over Ferrer one of the best matches he had played to that point. This time around, the Austrian isn’t in nearly that sort of form, although he has shown some improvement this week. His two wins this week are double the number of wins he had in the two previous years combined in this pre-U.S. Open stretch.

Match Tactics

This will obviously see a lot of baseline action with both players preferring to stay back and exchange blows from deep on the court. That would seem to favor Thiem who has more pop on his ground strokes and is more consistent off both wings. Still, Ferrer has been battling this week like the old Ferrer we’d been used to seeing. Not the Ferrer that has been struggling for the better part of a year to find positive and consistent results. Expect Ferrer to set up shop deep on return against Thiem as he’s done most of this week. It’s allowed him to use his speed to track down shots on the baseline and put them back into play in good positions.

Ferrer’s backhand has been a nice and somewhat surprising weapon this week as he’s been able to hit it with depth to push his opponents back on the court. His forehand has generally been more effective when he’s been able to set up in a stationary position and pick his angles. Against Thiem, he should have some opportunities if he can put the Austrian on the move. Thiem isn’t poor at hitting shots on the run, but his backhand especially is a howitzer shot when he sets his feet and puts his full power behind it. He’ll want to find that wing often to hit those winners down the line.

With Thiem, first serve is one of the most important aspects of his game. When he is in rhythm and hitting it precisely, he is as good as any player on tour. When he lacks consistency on that first serve, he’s highly vulnerable. Ferrer has done a good job on return this week, so it will be on Thiem to find the proper spots with his serve and to make sure that he uses good variety to keep Ferrer off balance. If Ferrer is on Thiem’s serve, his return shots will push Thiem back into poor position and allow Ferrer to move in and take advantage with the next shot.

The Pig’s Bottom Line

I still don’t think Thiem is in the best form yet on this surface, while Ferrer has shown that trademark fighting spirit that made him such a tough out for so long. However, Ferrer has not beaten a top ten player since the French Open in 2015. when he beat Marin Cilic. That is a long time and even with Thiem still not the best right now, it’s a lot to ask of the 35-year-old. I do think the Spaniard will push Thiem and an upset would not be totally shocking. Still, if Thiem is able to get that first serve in play consistently with placement, he should survive.

Prediction: Thiem wins in three sets

2017 Western & Southern Open R3 Preview: Grigor Dimitrov vs Juan Martin Del Potro

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Juan Martin Del Potro looks to continue his mastery of Grigor Dimitrov as they meet in the third round at the Western & Southern Open. DelPo has beaten Dimitrov five out of five, including earlier this year on clay in Rome.

(7) Grigor Dimitrov vs Juan Martin Del Potro

Dimitrov scored a 7-6 (5), 6-4 win over Feliciano Lopez ot start his campaign in Cincinnati on Wednesday. The 7th seed had an outstanding serve working with eleven aces overall as he took 85 percent of the points played off his first serve. He would save all three break points against his serve. Dimitrov secured the lone break of the match early in set two, the only time he broke Lopez on six chances. The win was Dimitrov’s second straight over Lopez in this same tournament, where Dimitrov barely survived their second round encounter last year in a third set tiebreak.

Del Potro had a relatively smooth second round match over qualifier Mitchell Krueger. DelPo edged the American 6-4, 6-4. He was forced to save five break chances in the match and came through each time with flying colors. Del Potro would win 77 percent of the points on his first serve and a stout 62 percent off his second serve. He was not as overpowering as he was at times against Tomas Berdych in his opener in Cincy, where he won 3-6, 7-6 (1), 6-0. DelPo blasted 18 aces in that match and won 88 percent off his first serve.

Dimitrov’s Dilemma

There’s an obvious gap when you face a player five times and win just two sets off of him. Such is the case for Dimitrov against Del Potro. He won just his second set off the Argentine in their Rome meeting this season, but fell 3-6, 6-2, 6-3. They played twice last year with DelPo prevailing in straight sets once indoors on a hard surface and once on grass. The other two meetings came indoors in 2013 with JMDP winning in straights both times.

The major class gap seems to come on serve, where Dimitrov is routinely allowing twice as many break opportunities as DelPo in these head-to-head meetings. In Rome, Del Potro saw eleven break chances and cashed in four times. Dimitrov saw just five break opportunities and secured two breaks overall. DelPo’s first serve has been a difference maker as well in the last three matches with JMDP scoring at least an eleven percent higher win rate on 1st serve points in each match.

This seems to be a recurring theme with Dimitrov when he goes up against a better class of player, especially ones who possess big fire power like the Argentine. He simply has trouble more often than not matching the pressure of staying serve for serve with his opponent. The Lopez match on Wednesday was a step in the right direction, but now he needs to show consistency on serve in this one as well.

Match Tactics

Serve is obviously a big part of the equation in this one. The surface in Cincinnati is conducive to adding some speed to the ball and Dimitrov has actually had some of his better serving days here in the last few years. Last year’s semifinal run by the Bulgarian saw him winning 76 percent of better of his first serve points through three rounds, before he faltered in the semifinals against Marin Cilic at 67 percent. In 2015, he won 84 percent of his first serve points in his first two matches before expectedly seeing lower against Andy Murray in the quarterfinals. He still had a 71 percent first serve win rate in that loss, a respectable number against the Scot.

So there could be some hope for Dimitrov despite the lopsided numbers as this one takes place. Del Potro has still been very inconsistent from match to match with his numbers taking a bit of a dip against Krueger last round after a mostly solid start to finish against Berdych in round one. The wrist still bugs DelPo now and again, so that is expected and just something he’s having to live with at this point. Del Potro has dished out five break chances in each of his matches so far this week. Dimitrov may be able to produce a bit better on his serve and see an extra chance or two off Del Potro’s, which might make serve close to even on this surface.

On return, Del Potro likes to set up deep beyond the baseline and he’s used that tactic against Dimitrov to help him craft points well. It affords him the opportunity to try and use his wing span to help cover the court and get to more forehands. With the quicker conditions in Cincy, Dimitrov might do more damage if he keeps an aggressive mind set and also isn’t afraid to drop in some short shots to push DelPo to come to net. I would expect a similar stance from Dimitrov on return in playing deep to try to get his racquet on Del Potro’s big first serve. The player who is able to find better success from deep will certainly have a leg up in this battle.

Off the ground, there’s still no secret that Del Potro wants to wallop that forehand every chance he gets. He’s integrated a backhand slice to help him run around more forehands and has grown a bit more comfortable doing it. He’ll still hit the double hander too, but it just doesn’t pack the same punch it did before all of his wrist issues. As for Dimitrov, the challenge always seems to be picking the right weapon to finish off points. He has plenty, but often isn’t aggressive enough at finishing points for my liking. Against an aggressive player like Del Potro, he has to be quick and decisive with his ground strokes.

The Pig’s Bottom Line

I think Dimitrov has to be willing to change up his tactics in this match. Coming in some would be a good change and force DelPo to show his north-south movement. I think DelPo is much better east-west, especially along the baseline. If Dimitrov gets too comfortable with keeping this as a baseline to baseline battle, then Del Potro is going to have the chance to dictate points the way he wants it. Both players have been pretty unpredictable this summer with DelPo riding the roller coaster of highs and lows more so than Dimitrov. Dimitrov simply has had more lows since his hot start to the season with very few highs.

This is a huge opportunity for both players with their quarter really opening up when Federer withdrew due to injury. The bottom half is open even more with Alexander Zverev dismissed on Wednesday. The winner here is going to be looked at as the favorite perhaps to get to the final and both definitely need that confidence booster ahead of the U.S. Open. No result would surprise here and for some reason, my gut is leaning to Dimitrov breaking through in this spot. Could be gas, but I’ll trust the gut.

Prediction: Dimitrov wins in three sets

2017 Western & Southern Open Preview

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Questions Among the Top Four Seeds

The U.S. Open hard court series hits its high note this week as the tour stops in Cincinnati for the Western & Southern Open. For many, this is the final tuneup before the U.S. Open. The new week arrives with new questions. We thought the biggest would be how Rafael Nadal bounced back after his shock loss to Denis Shapovalov in Montreal last week. Now, even with Alexander Zverev as the biggest story – the key question is how healthy is Roger Federer? Zverev truly played some of his best tennis and was a deserving winner in the Rogers Cup final on Sunday. However, there was little doubt that Federer seemed tight and not-so-fluid in the second set. Many observers believe the Swiss tweaked his back at some point with the focus on his change in service motion from set one to set two. Federer was typically mum after the match, so it remains to be seen what his status will be for this week.

As for the man who is the current main attraction on the ATP World Tour in Sascha Zverev, he arrives on a ten match winning streak and with plenty of confidence. The key for Sascha this week as was the case in Montreal is balance. Winning your second Masters title and beating Federer will obviously have him on an emotional high, so it’s big if he can prove again that he can come off that feeling and continue his run of great play. Zverev will serve as the fourth seed in Cincy behind Nadal, Federer and Dominic Thiem. Thiem himself will have something to prove with a 1-2 mark for his summer swing on hard courts. His loss to Diego Schwartzman in his opener last week in Montreal will be particularly troubling. The Austrian will want to gain some momentum this week.

Number One Ranking in Sight for Nadal or Federer

As for Nadal, he’ll look to shake off the disappointment of last week and focus on recapturing form at the Western & Southern Open with an eye on the top spot in the rankings. From the sounds of his comments after losing to Shapovalov in Montreal, one wouldn’t be wrong in thinking he fully expected to be in that spot entering the week. Instead, he’s still just behind Andy Murray at #2 by just 195 points. With Murray out this week again due to injury, Rafa can regain the top spot for the first time since 2014 if the chips fall right for him. Federer also has plenty to say about that if healthy enough to compete. Rafa lost in the round of 16 last year, so has plenty of points to gain with each win after that round. Federer did not play Cincinnati at all in 2016 due to injury, so will have nothing but points to gain with each win.

Seeded Field Struggling

If we’re honest, most of the seeded field in Cincinnati not named Sascha Zverev will be looking to establish a rhythm and find their best form this week. One player we won’t see is Kei NIshikori, who pulled out with a wrist injury. Nishikori has been set to be seeded fifth, a slot that will now go to lucky loser Janko Tipsarevic. Sixth seed Milos Raonic arrives off an injury concern last week in Montreal where he lost his opening match. He revealed after that he had played through some pain in his left wrist. The Canadian does not believe it to be a long term issue. What has been an issue for Raonic is his uneven play. He is a two-time semifinalist at this tournament, making that round last year.

The seventh seed this week is Grigor Dimitrov who has become the poster child for struggling on tour. Last week showcased that again as he beat Mischa Zverev in his opener before losing to Robin Haase going away 7-6, 4-6, 6-1. Dimitrov did have his best run here last year in making the semifinals, scoring four of his nine career wins in Cincinnati in that stretch. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) comes to the midwest with a poor record at this event (2-5) and just one match since Wimbledon. That was last week’s three set loss to Sam Querrey at the Rogers Cup.

David Goffin slots in as the 9th seed and another player who has been rough around the edges of late. The Belgian returned to tour in late July after missing time with an ankle injury. He is 3-3 since returning with his losses coming to unexpected sources like Ivan Dodig, Robin Haase and Hyeon Chung. Goffin is 5-3 in his career in Cincy, never making it past the round of 16. Tomas Berdych rounds out the top ten seeds. The Czech pulled out of Montreal last week with a rib injury or perhaps due to his lengthy run in Los Cabos the week prior. He made the final in Mexico, where he lost to Thanasi Kokkinakis in a grueling three set match.Berdych is 18-12 all-time at this tournament with semifinal runs in 2011 and 2013.

The last part of the seeded field includes Pablo Carreno Busta, Roberto Bautista Agut and a glut of Americans. The American contingent has the most history here. That includes 14th seed John Isner who won his Sunday opener against Viktor Troicki in straight sets. Isner has not done well since making the final in 2013. Since then, he has failed to get past the second round in two of the past three years. Sam Querrey (15) is 10-10 in Cincy, but has also not been past round two in the last six years. The final seed, Gilles Muller, won his opener on Sunday against Ryan Harrison in three sets. It was his first victory in just two career matches at this event.

Early Bird Specials

Last year was the lowest number of first-up upsets in Cincinnati a good bit. Only two seeds lost their openers last year. Prior to that, four seeds lost first-up in 2015, three in 2014 and six in 2013. Interestingly, a top eight seed has not lost their opener in Cincy since 2014. That could be up for a change this year with so many in this seeded field short on form and results of late. Let’s take a look at the players who could be most likely to struggle early.

3. Dominic Thiem
An intriguing opponent awaits Thiem either way the first round match between Fabio Fognini and Daniil Medvedev shakes down. Medvedev was unable to get off the ground in Montreal last week after his surprise run to the quarterfinals the week before in D.C. Fognini has a good run on clay after Wimbledon with a title in Gstaad. He did make a shock run to the quarterfinals in 2014 in Cincinnati, but has lost his first match each of the last two years. Thiem whipped Fognini in their lone career meeting on clay back in 2015 and he’s never played Medvedev. Both Fognini and Medvedev can play that smash and grab style on hard courts, so both can pose problems for Thiem and both can be overwhelmed when they are not hitting their spots. Keep the upset alert button handy in any case.

6. Milos Raonic
Keeping the Canadian here simply because we’re not sure what percentage that wrist is going to be at to start this week. He’ll face either Nikoloz Basilashvili or Borna Coric. Raonic is 1-0 against both, but consider Coric a possible trouble spot for the Canadian. Coric has taken to these courts well in two previous trips with wins over Alexander Zverev (2015) and then Nadal and Kyrgios last year. With Raonic up and down this year, there’s every reason to believe that match could be very tight.

7. Grigor Dimitrov
Dimitrov is a regular on this list and why not? He has stretched his streak of non first-up losses to four straight tournaments now, but he’s been pushed to three sets both in DC and Montreal in his first match before losing in the next round. He has lost his first-up match in five tournaments this year. Dimitrov gets Feliciano Lopez or Hyeon Chung to open this week. Lopez is 2-2 against Dimitrov, including a win on grass this year and a three set loss last year in Cincy in a third set tiebreak. Chung played well against Dimitrov in a four set loss at the Australian Open. Chung beat Lopez last week in Montreal, so it will be an intriguing first round clash that could lead to an even more intriguing second round match.

8. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Tsonga wasn’t done any favors with his draw. He is going to face the winner of Ivo Karlovic vs Jiri Vesely. Tsonga would probably prefer Vesely who he beat in a strenuous four set Davis Cup win on hard courts in 2016. Karlovic is 2-1 against the Frenchman with both wins coming on grass at Wimbledon. The plus for Tsonga is neither arrives with much done on this surface lately. Vesely has beaten Karlovic twice, but the last meeting came in 2015 at the U.S. Open. Either player is definitely capable of giving Tsonga fits with their power, especially considering Tsonga’s poor record here.

9. David Goffin
An easy inclusion on this list even if his first round opponent is about as trustworthy as a politician. Goffin faces Nick Kyrgios to start. The Aussie did put together two wins in a row in Montreal last week, his best showing since Madrid way back in May. His performance against Alexander Zverev in his loss was less than inspiring, but he at least showed some mobility and his shoulder held up. Does that mean he holds up this week? Of course not. He has beaten Goffin both times they have played in the past though with the last coming in Miami earlier this season when the Belgian was playing reasonably well. With the quick conditions in Cincy, Kyrgios will be a big bother for Goffin – IF he cares to be. That is the question.

10, Tomas Berdych
Berdych draws the first round Juan Martin Del Potro short stick this week. DelPo was up and down again last week. Looking decent in a win against John Isner in Montreal before looking very flat against Denis Shapovalov in the next round. He is 4-3 against Berdych. The Berdman has won both of their meetings on this surface, including the last at Indian Wells last season. With Berdych’s status unknown with the rib and DelPo always seemingly unknown with the wrist, this really looks 50-50.

12. Roberto Bautista Agut
RBA faces off against Jared Donaldson who brings some confidence to Cincy after back-to-back third round runs in D.C. and Montreal. The Spaniard was solid in his own right last week with a quarterfinal run at the Rogers Cup, where he lost to Federer 6-4, 6-4. RBA is just 2-3 at this event however and lost in round one to Nicolas Mahut last year. JD is 2-2 at this event in two career trips and he took Stan Wawrinka to three sets in a loss last year. If he finds his serve early, he’s a threat to upset.

Outsider’s Edge

Cincinnati has been a regular haven for outsiders the past five years with an unseeded player crashing the semifinals each year. That includes John Isner’s 2013 finals appearance as an outsider. With some of the questions surrounding this week’s seeded field, there could definitely be room for a new addition to the outsider’s club at the Western & Southern Open. Let’s take a look at some possibilities.

Nadal’s Quarter
There are too many unseeded possibilities in this quarter to list them individually. Yes, Nadal will be expecting to make a big run here, but he’s lost in the round of 16 each of his last two trips to the midwest. In this quarter, there is Nick Kyrgios, Kevin Anderson, Alexandr Dolgpolov, Ivo Karlovic and Jiri Vesely. Kyrgios, Dolgopolov and Anderson would have to go through each other in round two in some combination, but could benefit from having Tsonga and Goffin as the lead seeds in that half of the quarter. That would keep them away from Nadal longer if the Spaniard is able to make a run. Anderson probably carries the best form, but is 0-4 against Nadal. He might need help to get through to the semifinals out of this group.

Steve Johnson/David Ferrer
Johnson continues to ride the roller coaster from week to week and he gets another tough opener with David Ferrer. Ferrer scored two of his best wins this season last week at the Rogers Cup against Kyle Edmund and Jack Sock. He also took a set off of Federer before losing in three sets. The winner of their first round match gets to take advantage of Nishikori’s injury withdraw in round two. Ferrer is 2-0 against Johnson and perhaps arriving with the most confidence he has had in a long time. The winner would only have Carreno Busta seeded in their way to the quarterfinals and Thiem or Querrey as the possible seed blocking a semifinal. It’s a weaker draw that could open up nicely.

Fabio Fognini/Daniil Medvedev
The winner of their first round clash will have to beat Thiem in round two, but that’s not an unimaginable task right now on this surface. A couple wins and they could be in the driver’s seat for a quarterfinal run or better.

Gael Monfils
The Frenchman scored wins over Johnson and Nishikori last week to boost his confidence. He lost a tough three set match to Bautista Agut in round three in a third set tiebreak, but appears to be trending upward. He’s in the quarter with Zverev and Raonic as the top seeds. His half could be easier to at least push to the quarterfinals as La Monf is 3-3 against Raonic and had beaten RBA three straight before last week’s loss.

Karen Khachanov
The Russian’s potential this week would hinge on Federer’s status. Khachanov opens against Diego Schwartzman in round one. Schwartzman did beat him in Miami this year in three sets, but the quicker conditions in Cincy could help the Russian in this one. The winner would meet Federer in round two if the Swiss is able to go. Khachanov lost to Fed 6-4, 7-6 in Halle this year and proved he can stick with him in quick conditions. If things fall right, he would likely only need to get past Sock to get to the quarters. Then, it’s Dimitrov and Berdych as the highest seeds in the other part of the quarter to block a semifinal berth. It’s a long shot sure, but there is potential depending on what happens with Federer.

Draw Preview

Quarter #1 Seeds
Rafael Nadal (1)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8)
David Goffin (9)
Gilles Muller (16)

Breakdown
Nadal’s route to the quarterfinals could run through Muller, a repeat of their five set classic at Wimbledon this year. Muller has taken a set off of Rafa in their last two meetings and likely would provide another stiff test. Nadal will face Richard Gasquet or John Parick Smith to start. He is 14-0 against Gasquet and will likely feel comfortable in either case. Muller would need to get past Mikhail Youzhny or Albert Ramos-Vinolas in round two to make that rematch come true.

In the bottom half, Goffin and Tsonga are shaky seeds. Kevin Anderson could be the one to take advantage in this part of the draw if he gets past Dolgopolov to begin. Anderson made the Citi Open final and then followed up with a quarterfinal run last week. There is no Sascha Zverev in his way this week, so if he’s not fatigued, watch out for him again. I’d favor Tsonga over Goffin as far as the seed who could reasonably do better here.

For me, I think this quarter could boil down to the potential Nadal-Muller match in round three. Rafa will have confidence from getting those tough wins over the big lefty, but it also leaves this quarter the potential for someone other than Rafa to get through to the semis.

Quarter #2 Seeds
Dominic Thiem (3)
Pablo Carreno Busta (11)
Sam Querrey (15)

Breakdown
The departure of Nishikori in this quarter leaves room for some jostling in this quarter. Thiem is the lead seed, but far from a sure shot. His first match may be his toughest with either Fognini or Medvedev waiting. If the Austrian gets past that, he could get on a better roll. Querrey has a nice match-up in his half of the quarter to begin with Stefan Kozlov. His next match could be tougher with either Adrian Mannarino or Robin Haase as the foe. Mannarino is 2-0 against Querrey and Haase played very well in Montreal last week. I would not be surprised if this half of the quarter did fall to Thiem so long as he can get past his opener.

In the bottom half, Carreno Busta is the only seed with Janko Tipsarevic sliding into Nishikori’s slot. Carreno Busta could have a nice path with Paolo Lorenzi to open and then either Fernando Verdasco or Mischa Zverev. PCB is 1-1 against Zverev and 2-1 against Verdasco. Neither has been good of late on hard courts. Carreno Busta will have to overcome his lack of experience in this venue with just one career match, but he’s got the talent to make the run.

This quarter looks like it’s either Thiem or a total blowup with an unseeded player making their way through. Thiem has yet to master this Masters swing in his young career, so it’s not definite that he will this time around. Still, I do like him here if he gets past that opener. But that is a fairly large IF.

Quarter #3 Seeds
Alexander Zverev (4)
Milos Raonic (6)
Roberto Bautisra Agut (12)
John Isner (14)

Breakdown
All of a sudden, Zverev isn’t a future star – he’s a current star. This is sure to be a test for Sascha as one of the few players in the draw playing for a third straight week. No matter the form, that is a big ask for a player to continue to roll day after day. As usual in these situations, the first match could be the trickiest. Zverev faces either Frances Tiafoe or qualifier Maximillian Marterer. That will help alleviate some of the stress as both are inferior players to Sascha. He has already handled Tiafoe in straight sets twice at the Aussie Open and Wimbledon. Isner looks the larger threat from ending his run. Isner will need to get by Donald Young or Tommy Paul next round, but could be waiting for Zverev in round three. Sascha is 3-0 against Isner, including two wins this year, but Big John has taken a set off of him in each match. With a lot of mileage on Zverev, I would not be surprised if Isner ended Sascha’s win streak.

In the other half, Raonic arrives with the health question and is definitely a candidate for an early exit if the wrist is still bothersome. Coric, if he takes down Basilashvili in round one, could be the one to do it. Bautista Agut has the tough opener against Donaldson and then could face Monfils for a second straight week. This definitely looks like a part of the bracket that could see an unseeded player sneak through. Think Monfils or Donaldson, but Coric could also be a possibility with a good track record of playing tough in Cincy.

If Zverev can avoid burn out this week, you’d be a fool to bet against him as I did last week in Montreal. He’s the form player on tour the last few weeks and has proven it over and over. A healthy and in-form Raonic would obviously be tough here, but he’s neither coming into this week. If not Sascha, Bautista Agut is an interesting and under-the-radar seed to sneak into the mix. Monfils or Donaldson to me seems the likelier of the unseeded guys to surprise.

Quarter #4 Seeds
Roger Federer (2)
Grigor Dimitrov (7)
Tomas Berdych (10)
Jack Sock (13)

*See Updated thoughts below due to Federer announcing he would withdraw due to a back injury

Breakdown
The pluses for Federer this week are listed above. None of the seeds have been particularly consistent lately and none of them have traditionally bothered the Swiss. The big question for Fed is health. With the U.S. Open less than two weeks away, he’s going to be very careful not to overextend himself. Grand Slams are what it’s all about for the Swiss at this stage. Fed seemed to characterize his problems on Sunday as the aches and pains you would expect after being on vacation for a while and then playing a full week. To me, it sounds like he will give it a go in Cincy. If healthy, Federer has a good path to the quarters although Khachanov potentially in round two would be a tough out as laid out earlier. Sock has Yuichi Sugita to start and then may face Kyle Edmund in round two. Edmund smoked him in Atlanta.

In the other half, you have the enigma that is Dimitrov and the questionable status of Berdych. There are dangerous floaters like Del Potro, Benoit Paire, Feliciano Lopez and Hyeon Chung in this half as well. I trust Berdych more than Dimitrov since the Czech efforted well in Los Cabos. If he’s healthy, Berdych has a shot to get going if he can work past DelPo – that’s the big one for him early. This is pretty wide open with everyone here lacking consistency, so it’s really a pretty big guessing game as to who the quarterfinalist could be.

The hope will be that Federer’s body responds to a few days off and some treatment. If he bounces back, Cincy has always been pretty good to the Swiss. He is a seven time champ here after all. If he falters, it’s a big guessing game to the next best shot. I’d meagerly side with Berdych.

Federer’s withdrawal announcement on Monday gives everyone in this quarter some hope, albeit there are still many, many questions here. The winner of the R1 clash between Schwartzman and Khachanov is the immediate beneficiary with Thomas Fabbiano as their second round opponent instead of Federer. Jack Sock would be the seed to benefit the most, but his lackluster history in Cincy and uneven play this summer still makes him a big question. Kyle Edmund could be a quarterfinal sleeper in this part of the draw now, if he can get going early.

The other obvious duo to benefit by Federer’s exit are the other seeds in this quarter, Dimitrov and Berych, who both had poor records against the Swiss. Both have tough paths just to avoid early upsets though, so in all, this quarter now really looks like it is ripe for the taking by anyone who can get hot early. I still look to the winner of that Schwartzman-Khachanov match as a big player as to what shakes out in this quarter now.

AND THAT’S THE BOTTOM LINE BECAUSE THE PIG SAID SO …

Going into Montreal last week, it was all about Fedal. A Nadal loss to Shapovalov and Federer’s withdrawal changes that dynamic this week. Zverev is an obvious choice too, but as well as he’s playing, a third consecutive week of play is going to be a major challenge. Marin Cilic was a surprise winner in Cincinnati last year as the 12th seed and I could see Cincy falling to an unexpected name this year too. End of the day though, the motivation is there for Nadal especially this week and he’s in full health. I’ll give a small edge to him, but something weird in me (wine) says watch out for Thiem.

2017 Rogers Cup Final Tweet-view: Roger Federer vs Alexander Zverev

Another patented @tennispig #TweetView for you, whether you know you need it or not. A preview of an ATP World Tour match in 12 tweets or less. Today, it’s the Rogers Cup final between Roger Federer and Alexander Zverev that takes center stage.