It’s a rematch from last week at the Ricoh Open with a spot in the quarterfinals at the AEGON Championships ripe for the taking this week. Last week, it was Medvedev who edged Kokkiankis 6-3, 7-6 (3).
Daniil Medvedev vs Thanasi Kokkiankis
Medvedev may have been the more likelier of the two players to be in this spot, but he still needed to pull off a clutch win over grass master Nicolas Mahut to start this week. The Russian rallied after dropping the opening set in a tiebreak to edge Mahut 6-7 (3), 6-4, 6-4. Medvedev was keyed by his serve, winning 79 percent off his first serve and 64 percent off his second. He was not broken on five break chances. He would tally eight aces against six double faults. The Russian did just enough against the Mahut serve to secure two key breaks on six chances. It was a nice follow-up for Medvedev who made his first grass quarterfinal at this level last week in ‘s-Hertogenbosch.
Kokkinakis scored the biggest win of his career in the opening round with a 7-6 (5), 7-6 (8) win over world number six Milos Raonic. It was the Aussie’s first career Top 10 win in his fifth try. It was also a remarkable win considering his long and winding recovery from shoulder surgery that sidelined him until mid-May. The win over the third seed Raonic was just his second win on tour in five matches since his return. Kokkinakis was resilient, saving all nine of his break points on serve and making clutch plays in the tiebreaks. Kokkinakis would win 78 percent of his first serve points and 61 percent of his second serve points. The Aussie slammed down 15 aces, but actually scored two less points than the Canadian for the match (92-90).
First Verse Yields Key Separating Factors
It’s always an intriguing matter when players square off on the same surface in consecutive tournaments. It gives you a nice insight into their psyches and also how they game plan. Last week’s Ricoh Open match showed Medvedev the better man on serve. Not by much mind you, but he secured the lone break of the match off of five break chances. He never gave Kokkinakis a single look at a break chance.
Overall, the stats say it was close to even on serve. Both players won over 80 percent on their first serve. A difference maker was the Russian’s second serve, where he won 71 percent compared to just 52 percent for the Aussie. Medvedev had eleven aces while Kokkinakis tallied eight. Overall, the Russian scored more points (70-57) indicating better work off the ground as well.
Another factor to throw into the mix this week is how Kokkinakis responds from an emotional and career-best win. Often, it is difficult for younger players to gather themselves and carry that momentum into the next match. The 21-year-old Aussie has also admitted he is still struggling at-times with both shoulder and groin problems. All that considered, it was an amazing feat against Raonic, but now he gets the big hitting Russian again.
Medvedev put his mark on the season in week one, when he made the Chennai Final and lost in straights to Roberto Bautista Agut. He would have a couple of good results indoors with back-to-back quarterfinals in Montpellier and Marseille. A bout of mononucleosis knocked him down from there as he lost five straight opening round matches. He’s obviously feeling a bit more fit after his run through qualifying last week and into the quarterfinals at the Ricoh Open.
To the task at-hand, a repeat performance of last week’s encounter in the Netherlands. I tend to think Medvedev won’t be too shaken by the prospect of repeating his performance last week. After all, Kokkinakis did not show the ability to crack his serve and he was able to get some chances against the Aussie. For Kokkinakis, this will be about carrying the confidence over from the Raonic match. Even so, expecting him to continuously come up with big saves on break points over and over is a big ask for someone still recovering from shoulder problems.
Grass has shown to be conducive to both players games, despite their lack of experience on the surface. It’s been big serving and big hitting that has keyed them to wins on grass and that is something both excel at doing. Medvedev has even proclaimed that the green stuff is already his favorite surface, so he’s showing his mentality matches his comfortability level on grass.
Medvedev definitely deserves to hang out on the baseline and his volleying is still maybe average at best. That’s something Kokkinakis should look to test again by making the Russian come to net. Kokkinakis has played doubles enough that he’s a bit more skilled at the net and comfortable coming in when needed. Of course, Medvedev’s win over Mahut should also give him confidence if Kokkinakis does change things up, that he has enough to defend the serve and volley and have success against it. Kokkinakis will have to be crafty in his spots to possibly use that tactic.
You know both want to hammer their serves and then hit as many forehands as possible. The key for Kokkinakis is going to be consistently landing his serve for easy points. When he finds his rhythm, he smokes aces and can use his big serve to set up some quick 1-2 punches against the Russian. Medvedev won’t be looking to alter his game plan much, unless things don’t work. Serve big. Hit big. Repeat. If he’s hitting his spots on serve, I don’t think he’ll have a problem controlling points much like he did last week.
The Pig’s Bottom Line
I think consistency is a key word for this match and it’s something I am still a bit worried about for Kokkinakis at this stage of his comeback. He’s getting more match play and working his way through the pains he has to deal with, but it’s tough to repeat those great performances against good players. Medvedev may not be on par with Raonic, but “The Bear” is a dangerous player on this surface with his weaponry. Kokkinakis’ best chances might come by getting to tiebreaks and hoping to steal a few key points to take a set or two. He’s obviously fully capable of doing that as the Raonic result shows.
Bottom line though, I think Medvedev is growing in confidence and comfort level on this surface and he could be in line for bigger and better things on grass very soon. I think he takes it again, but I’ll give Kokkinakis a set this time.
Prediction: Medvedev wins in three sets