Fine Swine: ATP Indian Wells R1 Preview – Young vs Seppi

DYSeppi

Opening round play continues this evening in Indian Wells. American Donald Young is scheduled to be in action against Andreas Seppi.

Donald Young vs Andreas Seppi
It’s the last match scheduled for Stadium 1 this evening. American Donald Young equaled his best performance in Indian Wells last season. The one true Donald made the third round before losing 6-4, 6-2 to Rafael Nadal. The lefty has made the third round three times at Indian Wells in his career in 2008, 2011 and 2015. He comes to the tournament in middling form at 4-5 on the season. He has yet to register back-to-back wins at an ATP World Tour event in 2016.

For the Italian, he will be hoping his Davis Cup win last weekend is the begin of a turnaround for an unimpressive campaign this year. Seppi beat Henri Laaksonen in four sets as part of Italy’s 5-0 sweep of Switzerland. On tour, he carries a three match losing streak into this one and has won just one match since making the third round at the Australian Open. Like Young, Seppi’s success in Indian Wells is pretty underwhelming. The Italian has never made it past round three, the place where he has been stopped the last two seasons.

This will be meeting number four between the two, with this being the first since their clash at the 2014 Australian Open. Young won a five set grinder to score his first victory over Seppi. The Italian had won twice before with both meetings coming on grass back in 2011 and 2012. Both tend to struggle on serve fair too often to be completely effective and that normally carries into their ground strokes.

For the season, Young is winning 72 percent of his first serve points and 48 of his second. He saves 56 percent of his break points. Seppi shows similar numbers, just a click or two better. The Italian is winning 73 percent of his first serve points and 53 percent on second. He saves 58 percent of his break points. The key difference in this one could be break point conversions, where Seppi is much more effective. He has converted 48 percent of his break chances, while Young has converted just 35 percent.

With neither overpowering off the ground, there should be plenty of rallies battled out in this one. Seppi has the task of also transitioning from clay to the outdoor hard courts at Indian Wells, while Young has been on the surface continuously. That could give him a slight advantage early, but Seppi has been around the block and knows how to acclimate. This smells like a three set match, unless Seppi’s legs are done from the match last weekend and travel. It’s difficult to say for sure who wins here, but Seppi has dropped both his meetings with lefties this year. So the squeal deal tonight could be the one true Donald in the end.

Prediction
Donald Young wins in three sets

 

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